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Writer's pictureLicorne Gulf

The Geopolitical Significance of Central Asia in the Post-Russia-Ukraine Conflict Landscape for the Gulf Monarchies

November 30, 2024

The Shifting Sands of Central Asia

In the aftermath of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the geopolitical landscape of Central Asia has become a complex and ever-evolving stage, with the Gulf Monarchies emerging as key players seeking to expand their influence and secure their strategic interests.

"The Asie centrale depends on the future evolution of the hydrocarbons market, but also on the internal and international situation of the great Chinese neighbor. In the six Republics, a very young population of 75 million inhabitants lives globally, with an average age of 22.4 to 30.7 years depending on the countries which constitute one of our large Investments target for the next decade ." Irina Duisimbekova President of www.licorne-gulf.com - Investment Holding from Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and Qatar.

The young and growing population in Central Asia, combined with its vast energy resources, have made the region an increasingly attractive target for the Gulf nations. As Russia's grip on the region weakens in the wake of the Ukraine war, the Gulf Monarchies are poised to capitalize on the shifting power dynamics and assert their influence.

The Scramble for Central Asia

The strategic importance of Central Asia has not been lost on the Gulf Monarchies, who have been actively engaging with the region to expand their economic and political clout.

"The first is security: the Russian-Kazakhstani borders cannot be secured if the southern borders of Central Asia with Afghanistan, or even Iran and China, are not, hence the desire for work from Central Asia." Rim MATHLOUTHI 

By establishing strong economic ties and investing in infrastructure projects, the Gulf nations aim to secure a foothold in the region and gain access to its valuable natural resources. This, in turn, allows them to diversify their economies and reduce their dependence on hydrocarbon exports.

In recent years, Central Asia has quietly emerged as an increasingly attractive destination for international investors seeking new opportunities and Liconre Gulf had taken the advanatges of its positioning in the GCC countries for the last past 27 years and its solid Partners across the region. Once seen as a region mired in economic stagnation and political instability, the nations of Central Asia - Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan - are now capturing the attention of savvy global investors.

The key drivers behind this trend are manifold. Firstly, the region's governments have undertaken sweeping economic reforms to open up their markets and create more business-friendly environments. As> "Tajikistan is Central Asia's top FDI destination per capita with 0.09 projects per 100,000 people in 2020. In addition, it was the only country in the region to see an increase in FDI project numbers in 2020. Key sectors for investment include aluminium, cotton and energy as well as tourism."

Secondly, the resource-rich nations of Central Asia offer tantalizing investment opportunities. Kazakhstan, in particular, has vast reserves of oil, gas, and minerals that continue to draw major international energy companies. "Uzbekistan's investments across Central Asia prioritize high-value manufacturing, with projects in Kazakhstan such as an metallurgical plant in Taraz ($121.3 million), a metal rolling facility"

The Geopolitical Tug-of-War

The Gulf Monarchies' efforts to assert their influence in Central Asia have not gone unnoticed by other regional powers, notably China and Russia.

"The advances of Russia in Central Asia in the 1860s followed the defeat of the Crimean War. Following another defeat, against Japan in 1905, Russia turned to Asia." 

As Russia's influence in the region wanes, China has become increasingly assertive in its efforts to expand its economic and political footprint. The Gulf Monarchies find themselves caught in a geopolitical tug-of-war, navigating the complex web of regional rivalries and alliances to safeguard their interests.

As such, Central Asia's significance extends beyond its abundant natural resources, including oil, natural gas, and mineral deposits. The region's strategic location at the crossroads of Europe and Asia makes it a critical transit hub for trade and energy shipments. The Gulf monarchies recognizes the importance of diversifying their energy markets and securing alternative trade routes.

Today, the Gulf's economic interests in Central Asia are driven by the need to secure energy supply chains, invest in infrastructure development, and promote regional trade.

The United Arab Emirates (UAE), in particular, has emerged as a key player in Central Asia. With its deep pockets and strategic location, the UAE is well-positioned to facilitate trade and investment between the Gulf and Central Asia. The UAE's state-owned investment firm, Mubadala, has already invested heavily in Kazakhstan's energy sector, while the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) has signed agreements with Uzbekistan to develop its oil and gas fields.

The Future of Central Asia

The outcome of the Gulf Monarchies' quest for influence in Central Asia will have far-reaching implications for the region and the broader geopolitical landscape.

"The Asie centrale therefore depends on the future evolution of the hydrocarbons market, but also on the internal and international situation of the great Chinese neighbor; meanwhile, Two of the region's powerhouses, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan, have emerged as particularly attractive destinations for international investment and our strategies: Uzbekistan's investments across Central Asia prioritize high-value manufacturing, with projects in Kazakhstan such as an metallurgical plant in Taraz ($121.3 million), a metal rolling facility" - Irina Duisimbekova in #Ryiadh Investment Forum 2024

astana; kazakhstan; GCC

As the region continues to evolve, the Gulf Monarchies must employ a delicate balancing act, leveraging their economic clout and diplomatic ties to navigate the shifting power dynamics and secure their long-term strategic objectives.

Last Month at the #NewYork Investment #FamilyOffice annual Summit 2024, we had asserts that "Central Asia's strategic location makes it an ideal hub for regional cooperation and investment. The region's proximity to major markets such as China, Russia, and Europe makes it an attractive destination for businesses looking to tap into these markets".

"A proactive American economic and cultural investment in Central Asia's next generations could yield positive results for the United States for decades to come." 

The region's potential for growth is not lost on global powers such as the United States, which has announced plans to increase its engagement with Central Asia. The U.S. recognizes the region's strategic importance and is keen to promote economic and cultural cooperation with Central Asian countries.

The post-Russia-Ukraine conflict landscape has presented the Gulf Monarchies with a unique opportunity to expand their influence in Central Asia and which they do with high success. By capitalizing on the region's strategic importance and its vast energy resources, the Gulf nations are poised to play a pivotal role in shaping the future of this dynamic and geopolitically significant region.


Subject: Geopolitical Significance of Central Asia in the Post-Russia-Ukraine Conflict.


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